Summer 2026 gas is more expensive than winter 2026 gas.
That's not a typo. The seasonal spread has inverted.
It means: injecting gas into storage this summer costs more than withdrawing it next winter. On pure economics, nobody should fill storage. And yet Europe must — or face a crisis in December.
Here's the context. EU storage sits at 26% — identical to March 2022, the year Russia cut flows. Back then, Qatari LNG stepped in and saved the injection season. Today, the Hormuz strait is mined and that tool is effectively gone. TTF trades flat at around 50 €/MWh from April through February 2027. The forward curve only breaks in April 2027 — the market's bet on when this resolves.
In 2022, Europe proved it could adapt under pressure. The pivot was painful, but it worked. The next few months will test whether that was a one-time sprint or a lasting capability.
The withdrawal bars are ending. The injection bars are starting. Watch how fast they fill — or don't.
This is a first take. A fuller analysis — storage trajectories, LNG supply scenarios, cross-market impacts — is coming in the next few weeks.
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